HomeMy WebLinkAboutAnalysis of Demand for a Charter School
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ANALYSIS OF DEMAND
FOR A CHARTER SCHOOL
OCOEE, FLORIDA
OCTOBER 2007
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ANAL YSIS OF DEMAND FOR A CHARTER SCHOOL
OCOEE, FLORIDA - 2007
SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION
This report examines the demand for a charter school to be located in Ocoee, Florida. Demand is
measured through the use of two principal tools; a survey of parents of school age children
within the City of Ocoee, and the determination of the number of children in the local schools
above the "permanent student stations". Permanent student stations remove the "relocatables" or
portables from the capacity of the school.
The survey of parents was conducted via telephone and achieved a Statistical Validity of +/- 5%
based on a 95% Confidence Level. This survey identified the number of parents that would
likely enroll their children in a charter school. A total of 395 households were surveyed,
representing 699 children.
The school capacity numbers were derived from reports filed by the Orange County School
Board and data available from the Florida Department of Education.
SECTION 2. SCHOOL AGE POPULATION
Current population figures for the City of Ocoee were obtained from Claritas, a nationally
recognized source of demographic data. The school age population was determined to be equal
to the number of persons in the age groups between 5 and 17. Although some actual students
may be either older or younger than this age range, the approximation is appropriate.
For the year 2007, the estimate of school age children is 6,428. This figure is expected to grow
to 7,389 by the year 2012. All of these figures represent the municipal limits ofOcoee.
SECTION 3. AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE SURVEY
One of the primary questions in the survey was the number of children in the household and the
grade level of each child. This information provided a determination of the age and grade mix of
the students from Ocoee. This information also verifies the data obtained from Claritas. Table 1
lists the distribution of the Ocoee students by grade.
- 1 -
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TABLE I
GRADE DISTRIBUTION OF STUDENTS - PARENT SURVEY
RESPONSE NUMBER PERCENT
Not in school yet 4 0.6
Pre-K 37 5.3
Kindergarten 45 6.4
1 st Grade 54 7.7
2nd Grade 64 9.1
3rd Grade 61 8.7
4th Grade 70 10.0
5th Grade 69 9.9
6th Grade 68 9.7
ih Grade 53 7.6
8th Grade 53 7.6
9m Grade 35 5.0
1 Om Grade 34 4.9
11m Grade 23 3.3
1 ih Grade 29 4.2
TOTAL 699 100.0
SECTION 4. NUMBER OF STUDENTS FROM OCOEE AT THE LOCAL SCHOOLS
A close inspection of the public schools and two private schools that are located within the City
of Ocoee was undertaken to ascertain the percentage of students at those facilities who were
residents of the City of Ocoee. The specific schools that were examined were; Citrus, Ocoee,
Spring Lake and Thornebrooke Elementary Schools, Ocoee Middle School and Ocoee High
School. Also examined were; Hope Charter School as well as Central Florida Christian and
Victory Christian Schools.
The estimate of the percentage of students from Ocoee attending each of the schools was made
based on the current school attendance boundaries and determining how much of the school zone
is within the City of Ocoee. Development patterns were also taken into consideration. These
figures are estimates only and do not reflect actual addresses for the students. This information
indicates the magnitude of the service of the residents of Ocoee. Although these facilities may
be within the City limits, nearly one-half of the students are from outside the City of Ocoee.
Estimation of the students' home location for the Charter School and the two private schools was
not possible since these facilities serve students from an unspecified area. Hope Charter School
serves special needs students only and can take students from anywhere in Orange County. The
two private schools have no service boundaries.
The list of schools, attendance and number from Ocoee are found in Table 2.
- 2 -
TABLE 2
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE LEVELS AND PERCENTAGE FROM OCOEE
School Actual 2005/2006 CO FTE Percentage/Number of Ocoee
Students
Citrus 881 67% 1 590
Ocoee 667 100% 1 667
Spring Lake 558 80% 1 446
Thornebrooke 954 20% 1 191
Total Number Students 3,060 62%/1 ,894
Ocoee Middle 1,760 67% 1 1,179
Ocoee Hil:!h 3,349 50% 1 1,675
Total Number Students 8,169 58%/4,748
Current Enrollment
Hope Charter 250 N/A
Central Florida Christian 532 N/A
Victory Christian 115 N/A
The table above illustrates the contrast between the total number of students in the facilities that
were examined and the percentage of students that reside in the attendance boundaries of the
individual schools. When the total number of students in the public schools is compared to the
total number of City of Ocoee students, it is found that approximately 58% of the total is from
Ocoee.
There are other Public Schools in the area that serve students from Ocoee, although they are
located in other jurisdictions. These facilities and the percentage of their students from Ocoee
are;
Lake Whitney Middle School 60%
Lake View Middle School 10%
West Orange High School 5%
We kiva High School 5%
Olympia High School 5%
SECTION 5. STUDENT POPULATION IN EXCESS OF PERMANENT STATIONS
The examination of the statistics provided by the Orange County School Board shows that all of
the local schools have enrollments less than the number of student stations. However, this
statistic does not reveal that a significant percentage of the stations are in "relocatables". Many
parents do not find that "relocatables" are the best environment for student learning. At present,
there are 2,385 "relocatables" in service in the local Ocoee schools. If the "relocatables" were
removed from the student station count, all of the local schools would be over capacity.
- 3 -
The significance of the student station condition may also be represented by the Capital Building
Program for the School Board. Two significant projects are planned for the schools in the area.
Thomebrooke Elementary is scheduled for "relief' of 850 student stations. Ocoee Middle
School is scheduled for 1,350 student stations. The plans for 2,200 additional student stations is
reflective of the demand in the area and the inability of the current facilities to meet this demand.
Table 3 lists the overcrowding perspective for the current year. Table 4 provides projections for
the year 2011.
TABLE 3
ILLUSTRATION OF OVERCROWDING - CURRENT YEAR
School Actual Actual Number of Permanent Percent
2006/2007 2005/2006 Relocatables Capacity Occupied
FISH CO FTE
Citrus 1,028 881 270 758 116.23
Ocoee ES. 953 667 468 485 137.53
Thomebrooke 1,114 954 370 744 128.23
Spring Lake 774 558 350 424 131.60
Ocoee MS 1,760 1,603 352 1,408 113.85
Ocoee HS 3,349 2,882 575 2,774 103.89
Total 8,978 7,545 2,385 6,943 114.44
TABLE 4
ILLUSTRATION OF OVERCROWDING - 2011
School Actual Projected Number of Permanent Percent
2006/2007 2011 CO Relocatables Capacity Occupied
FISH FTE
Citrus 1,028 962 270 758 126.91
Ocoee ES. 953 706 468 485 145.57
Thomebrooke 1,114 1,351 370 744 181.59
Spring Lake 774 583 350 424 137.50
Ocoee MS 1,760 2,366 352 1,408 168.04
Ocoee HS 3,349 3,000 575 2,774 108.15
Total 8,978 8,968 2,385 6,943 136.02
These figures indicate that within the next four years, over one-third of all students in the local
schools will be using "relocatables" without significant construction.
-4-
SECTION 6. DEMAND FOR CHARTER SCHOOL
The parents interviewed in the survey were asked if they would consider sending their child(ren)
to a Charter School. The response was significant with 42.2% answering "Yes". In addition, a
total of 21.5% of all respondents requested information regarding the potential Charter School so
that they could plan for enrollment of their child(ren). Full ~urvey results are in the Appendix.
The responses were further examined to determine if there is a preference for the Charter School
based on the age ofthe student. The results for the students from the Elementary, Middle School
and High School level were tabulated. The results of the issue by age group is as follows:
Elementary - 44.5% Yes
Middle School- 44.8% Yes
High School - 30.0% Yes
The projection of the student enrollment in the proposed Charter School based on the survey is as
follows;
TABLES
CHARTER SCHOOL DEMAND-CURRENT YEAR
Grade Number of Students Percent "Yes" to Demand
Charter School
Kindergarden 437 44.5 195
15t Grade 527 44.5 235
2nd Grade 624 44.5 277
3rd Grade 598 44.5 266
4th Grade 681 44.5 303
5th Grade 675 44.5 300
6th Grade 662 44.8 297
7th Grade 521 44.8 233
8th Grade 521 44.8 233
9th Grade 341 30.0 102
10th Grade 334 30.0 100
11 th Grade 225 30.0 67
1 ih Grade 283 30.0 85
Total 6,428 2,694
Source: PMG Associates, Inc.
- 5 -
TABLE 6
CHARTER SCHOOL DEMAND - 2012
Grade Number of Students Percent "Yes" to Demand
Charter School
Kindergarden 502 44.5 224
I st Grade 606 44.5 270
2nd Grade 717 44.5 319
3rd Grade 687 44.5 306
4tJ1 Grade 783 44.5 349
5th Grade 776 44.5 345
6tn Grade 761 44.8 341
ih Grade 599 44.8 268
8th Grade 599 44.8 268
9tn Grade 392 30.0 117
loth Grade 384 30.0 115
11m Grade 259 30.0 78
I in Grade 325 30.0 98
Total 7,389 3,097
Source: PMG Associates, Inc.
These figures represent the percentage of parents who would consider sending their child(ren) to
a Charter School. There would obviously be some fall-off from these figures to those who
actually enroll their child(ren) in the Charter School. However, our history in completing
analyses of this type reveal that a majority of the parents actually do enroll their child(ren), if a
Charter School were available. Some of the findings of the survey that prove to be most
interesting regarding this matter are:
. 30% of High School student's parents responded Yes to this question. This is one of the
highest percentages for this age group that we have witnessed.
. Typically, the positive response rate declines as the grades increase with Elementary the
highest and High School the lowest. The fact that in this survey, the Middle School
parents responded at a higher rate than Elementary School parents may be reflective of
the severe overcrowding at Ocoee Middle school.
. 21.5 % of all respondents requesting more information regarding the Charter School,
indicating significant interest. This figure is more than one-half of the parents showing
interest in the School. Usually those parents that request the information, do enroll their
child(ren) at the Charter School. The school age population represented by those who
shown significant interest is between 1,400 and 1,600 students.
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SECTION 7. CONCLUSIONS AND FINDINGS
This analysis concentrated on two specific areas of research. The first was the information
regarding the number of student stations and the use of "relocatables". The second source was a
survey of parents of students from the City of Ocoee. This survey focused on the students from
the City. However, regulations regarding Charter Schools enable any student in the School
District to attend these facilities. Preference in enrollment may be given to residents of Ocoee,
but any student living in Orange County may attend. This situation will result in higher demand
than shown in Tables 5 and 6.
The specific findings are:
. 42.2 % of all parents would consider the Charter School for their child(ren)
. Projected enrollment for the current year is 2,694
. Projected enrollment for 2012 is 3,097
. Current enrollment in Public Schools exceed the number of permanent student stations by
over 14%
. Over 26% (2,385) of all current student stations are in "relocatables"
. The School Board plans to add 2,200 new student stations due to demand
These findings lead to the conclusion that there is demand for a Charter School in the City of
Ocoee. It is likely best to phase in the school with the lower grades first expanding to higher
grades as the current student population advances.
- 7 -
PM G Associates, Inc.
Economic, Marketing and Management Consultants
CHARTER SCHOOL SURVEY
CITY OF OCOEE
SEPTEMBER 2007
Coconut Creek. FL
Mimlli. FL
Hendel~nville. NC
4171 West Hillsboro Boub'anl. Suite 8. Coconut Creek. Rorida 33073. (954) 427-5010. Fax (954) 480-8836 . \\w\\'.pl11gas~ociates.col11
. at IS your ImpreSSIOn 0 arter c 00 s.
RESPONSE NUMBER PERCENT
Positive 206 52.0
Negative 145 36.6
Don't have one 45 11.4
TOTAL 396 100.0
CHARTER SCHOOL SURVEY - CITY OF OCOEE
SEPTEMBER 2007
1
Wh
fCh
S hi?
2. Can you describe the SINGLE. MOST relevant item contributing to your Positive
impression?
Small classes 52
Better all round education 39
Hear good things 22
Good alternative 15
Parental involvement 15
Sounds good 9
Community involvement 7
Child has special needs 6
No answer 6
More attention given 5
Stronger discipline 3
Need new schools 2
Okay 2
Could be good 2
Curriculum 2
No yearly redistricting 2
Positive thing 2
They try harder 2
Could be good 2
Charters are great I
Communication 1
Competition is good 1
Flexibility
Gets children in school
If it works
Good morals for children
Good track record
Grades
Includes everyone
It is free
More accountability
More freedom
Student involvement
Don't concentrate on FCA T
Would relieve over-crowding
Worth a try
Was in, had to leave
Returns power to the people
Self-supportive
So far so good
Specialized in student needs
Want my children to go
Centered students
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
I
1
I
1
1
1
1
3. Can you describe the SINGLE. MOST relevant item contributing to your Neeative
impression?
Not needed 36 Don't care 1
Misuse of funds 15 Don't like them 1
Not a good idea 9 Don't solve problems 1
Not sure 9 A lot of troubled children 1
Hear bad things 7 Going broke 1
Not familiar with them 6 Happy with current school 1
Too many problems 5 Have too many problems 1
High turnover 4 No athletics 1
Depends on charter school 2 No state funding 1
Expenses 2 Not enough resources 1
Teachers 2 Won't do any good 1
Not interested 4 Not well rounded 1
Lacking academically 1 Only like public schools 1
Administrative changes 1 Poor quality 1
Don't follow county rules 1 Religion not provided 1
Be cautious 1 Run by county 1
Charter's bad for children 1 Run by public 1
Child has special needs 1 Different standards 1
Correctness 1 Too many shut down 1
Waiting list too long 1
Want more information 1
4.
RESPONSE
How manv children do you have?
AVERAGE
1.77
5. What grade is/are your child(ren) currently enrolled in or will your child(ren) start school
'th' th t t tw ?
WI ID e nex year or nex o years.
RESPONSE NUMBER PERCENT
Not in school yet 4 0.6
Pre- K 37 5.3
Kindergarten 45 6.4
1 st Grade 54 7.7
2nd Grade 64 9.1
3rd Grade 61 8.7
4th Grade 70 10.0
5ID Grade 69 9.9
6th Grade 68 9.7
ih Grade 53 7.6
8th Grade 53 7.6
9th Grade 35 5.0
loth Grade 34 4.9
11111 Grade 23 3.3
12th Grade 29 4.2
TOTAL 699 100.0
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6. What me of school does our child(ren) attend?
RESPONSE NUMBER PERCENT
Public School 500 71.6
Charter School 24 3.4
Magnet School I 0.1
Private School 82 11.8
Home School 24 3.4
Not in school yet 4 0.6
Religious School 63 9.0
Other 1 0.1
TOTAL 699 100.0
Other (Specify): VPK
7.
RESPONSE AVERAGE
On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 beine: hie:h and 1 beine: low, how satisfied are you 4.17
with vour child(ren's) current school?
8. For those who answered 1 or 2: Can you describe the SINGLE. MOST relevant item
contributing to your dissatisfaction?
No answer
FCA TS
Teachers
Principal
No discipline
Doesn't provide needs
Not happy
A lot of wasted time
Changes
Communication
Curriculum
I
I
26
10
7
4
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
Held child for 5 hours
Inconsistencies
Just okay
Locked school
No parental involvement
Not much feedback
Safety issues
Poor quality
Redistricting
School's too big
School policies
iii
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
9. For those who answered 4 or 5: Can you describe the SINGLE. MOST relevant item
contributing to your Satisfaction?
Teachers 96
Level of education 34
Good school 18
A rated school 16
Religion & faith 16
Child doing well 11
Smaller classes 9
Values 7
Parental involvement 7
Curriculum 6
Child is happy 5
Communication 5
No answer 5
Better than NY schools 1
Child graduating 1
Close to home, good school 1
Education could be better 1
Expertise in autism 1
Getting better education 1
Good enough 1
Good, safe school 1
Involvement in the arts 1
Level of everything 1
Location 1
Nice classrooms 1
Overall quality 1
Programs offered 1
Reinforced skills 1
School has upgraded 1
School's track record 1
Athletics 1
Teachers, counselors 1
Teachers, staff 1
Discipline
Good so far
Positive experience
Care of children
No complaints
Principal
Academics
Children love school
Home schools beneficial
Teachers & staff
Organized school
Staff
Teachers, values
Better than public
Child's needs are met
School's consistent
Great elementary
Flexibility
Good & bad
Good with children
Growing school
Kindergarten's great
Like everything
Morals
Academics & faith
Principal & staff
Faculty
Safety
School requirements
FCA T scores
Teachers, communication
Teachers, values
Teachers attention
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
10. Would YOU consider sendin2 your child(ren) to a Charter School?
RESPONSE NUMBER PERCENT
Yes 167 42.2
No 229 57.8
TOTAL 396 100.0
IV
11. How many miles away from your home would you drive to brine: your child(ren) to sc
RESPONSE NUMBER PERCENT
1-5 miles 52 31.1
6-9 miles 44 26.3
10-12 miles 35 21.0
13-15 miles 31 18.6
No answer 5 3.0
TOTAL 167* 100.0
hool?
* Percentages are based on the 167 respondents that answered "Yes" to question # 1 0
12. Would your child(ren) need bus transportation to and from the charter school in order to
attend?
RESPONSE NUMBER PERCENT
Yes 84 50.3
No 83 49.7
TOTAL 167* 100.0
*Percentages are based on the 167 respondents that answered "Yes" to question # 1 0
13. Would you be interested in receiving additional information on the Charter School as it
becomes available?
RESPONSE NUMBER PERCENT
Yes 85 21.5
No 311 78.5
TOTAL 396 100.0
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